The Market goes UP and the Market goes DOWN

Boy, what a crazy week for the entire stock market this Christmas [2018].  If you were paying attention…  I heard the news and rushed to see my investments falling in $ value.  But I left them alone (mostly 70/30 index funds), and continued to watch them fall.  Even the investment portion of my Health Savings Account (HSA) was down over a thousand dollars meaning I had less than what I had initially invested.  Not good at all!

But then I remembered my investment philosophy.  I am betting on and investing in the whole market and whether inflation, growth, recession, war, or whatever happens, the value of the market full of small, medium, and large cap companies will be there.  Consumers, businesses, and governments will always need employers and suppliers of both raw materials and finished goods.  My investments are slowly increasing in value again, but I would not be surprised we see another drop.  But just like the second half the week, I won’t pay much attention.  I will just keep purchasing more within my 401k and other investments vehicles.

Being Frustrated With Where You Are At Financially

Yesterday I posted our Sept 2016 Financial Status Update.  While our savings are growing and we are getting on the right track, I feel horribly behind.  We are a year or two away from 30 years old, and have only just started making decent money.  The multiple irons in the fire are starting to pay off.  But my plan of “earlier” retirement in my early 50’s seems impossible many days.

Here is the current estimate given actual savings rate, a retirement at age 50, and with working a little bit part-time from 50-65 ($15k/year).  I delayed taking Social Security until age 70, and conservatively estimated an annual benefit of only $20k combined for my wife and I (SS is heavily underfunded and currently estimated to pay 76% of benefits after 2037 – link).  There is a chance I would run out of money before I turned 70, and a really good chance of completely running out of savings in my early 80’s.  Very bleak.

perscap_retire50_actual_2016_sept

perscap_retire50_actual_incomeevents_2016_sept

Astute readers will notice there was a $700 drop from yesterday to today in total savings/investments.  Got to love market volatility, mainly from oil prices and the Wells Fargo scandal.  Good thing I am a long-term investor as I have many years and decades to weather these storms.

 

What gives me some hope though is that the “$18,908 per year” that Personal Capital “sees” me saving each year is probably a low estimate since I have only been using them for a little over a year and I have already saved $23,000+ in 2016 so far.  With the same numbers, except increasing annual savings to $25k, I have a better chance of retiring at 50.  I won’t be living it up at $45,000/yr nor will I leave an inheritance, but there is a good chance I wouldn’t run out of money before I die.

perscap_retire50_25kyear_2016_sept

 

And if I increase the savings to $30k per year, I am even better off.  I should be able to save that much money in all of my retirement and investment account combined, but it will take some effort.  And it looks like it may be required if I want to retire at 50-ish.

perscap_retire50_30kyear_2016_sept

 

This last chart looks amazing with a 98% chance, right?!  To make this happen, I only need to save $30k per year and work until I am 65.  Not ideal and probably overkill for my needs, but it lets me know that my actual retirement is probably somewhere between 55-65.  Hence the frustrated title.  Some get frustrated and give up; most have at least thought about it.  The only way to change the numbers is to make more and save more, which I am working on.  Perseverance, hard work, and being uncomfortable with where you are at are key to getting ahead.  But it is a painful process.

perscap_retire65_30kyear_2016_sept

How to Learn Financial Maturity

Financial Maturity, similar to all genre’s of maturity, can be difficult to gain and requires learning from mistakes we would rather forget.  I distinctly remember times in my life when I made poor financial decisions (such as rushed purchases I later regretted or not postponing a luxury until I could really afford it) and later wished I hadn’t.  While not a minimalist by any stretch, all around me are things that I wished I didn’t have or things I wished I had waited to purchase.  And it’s not that they aren’t useful or cool, or that I wouldn’t purchase them someday.  Rather, I am at a point where I would rather have my total investment balance in my Personal Capital app be $10,000 higher than have all these items.  And, given the bull market we have seen since 2010, I could have easily doubled my money if I had just invested in a S&P 500 index fund!

Yahoo Finance S&P 500 5 year stock history 2011-2016
Source: Yahoo! Finance

This has made me incredibly passionate about delaying purchases.  Once upon a time, eBay was difficult for me and I just had to stop visiting.  It was easy to find “deals” that were a good value, but not something I truly needed.  Amazon has been my most recent temptation since it is so easy to add anything you could ever want to your Cart, and then see it over and over again.  You keep thinking about how nice it would be to have that one item, or maybe two of them.  You reach the $50 Free Shipping minimum and BOOM! you get it.  You receive the box in a week or less (I don’t have Prime, but my brother does, which is a whole other temptation!) and you have your shiny new items.  The new stuff gets put into circulation, you use it every once in a while, but it just adds to everything else lying around in the home.  And, the temptation for something new starts creeping again.  It’s a vicious cycle that I am working on personally.

Lest you think this is only a post about buying things you don’t need…

Where I am most tough on myself and my past mistakes, though, is not saving as much as I should have.  In your teens and early 20’s, a young adult is in an AWESOME position to save money since you have almost no expenses.  You live with your parents or in a cheap apartment, you share meals, don’t have expensive tastes, etc.  There is very little reason someone working full-time can’t have $10,000 or more saved in less than 5 years, even if they started at 16 years old.  If you attend college, the money you make from internships and part-time gigs should be able to cover a large part of the cost, allowing you to supercharge your saving at your first post-graduation job.  This is all predicated on the smart idea that you go to college for something that pays well.  Which you did, right?  Please tell me that at least you didn’t go to an expensive college for that low-paying career choice?!

As they say, “Hindsight is 20/20”.  We can’t change what choices we made or actions we did.  What we can do is accept personal responsibility, learn from past mistakes or poor choices, and make right decisions going forward.  I challenge myself and you to limit spending to only that which is necessary to live life and truly enjoy your family, and save as much as possible for the rainy day and eventual portfolio that will give you freedom.

Intro to Foundational Posts

My Foundational posts are posts that contain key basics.  For example, to become wealthy over time, you need to save money and earn interest on that money.  There is no if’s, and’s, or but’s about it.  New readers would find these posts very informational, especially if they are struggling to see where I am coming from on other posts.  Because they are Foundational, they will be updated from time to time so that one does not have to read through several smaller posts to understand fully where I am coming from.  Enjoy!

 

Why Do I Need To Save?

This is really the most important question.  And the answer is likely going to be as individual as the person, with common themes visible in most.  We only live life once, and more and more people are wanting to live their life to the fullest at every age instead of just in their 70’s.  While not quite YOLO (You Only Live Once), there is a temptation to put off saving for just a little bit longer.  Before you know it, you are in your 30’s or 40’s with less than $10,000 to your name.  You had a great time, but are behind the eight ball.  Others who may travel, explore, or “live” less fall into the same trap by putting off savings as normal expenses come up.  The number of those 50 years and older who don’t even have $100,000 saved/invested is staggering.  Most retirement calculators will say you need over $1 million saved as you exit your career.  Additionally, the pressure to help with children’s college, wedding, or first house can push back any hope for retirement even further.

If we don’t know what we are saving for, then we won’t be consistent in saving.  Or, maybe we will realize we don’t need to save anything at all (doubtful).  So, why might we want to save?

Common Reasons to Save

  • Rainy Day or Emergency Fund
  • House Down-Payment
  • College
  • Wedding
  • Upgraded Vehicle
  • Generating Passive Income

 

Making the Reasons Personal

What are your goals?

Housing

Would you like to own a home, or even have the possibility if the need/desire arises?  Per the US Census, the 2010 Median Home Price in the United States was $221,800 (Source: http://www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf).  A 20% down payment would require $44,360 saved, with an additional $5-15,000 for the fees, costs, and escrows required when purchasing a home.  While you could buy a house with less than 20%, the extra mortgage interest and PMI makes it less than ideal.  And the more you save and put towards your mortgage early, the less you pay in total interest.  It is not unheard of, even in the current low interest rate market, to pay close to the value of the mortgage just in interest.  So, for a $200,000 house, you will end up spending more than $300,000 between principal and interest.

Or maybe you want to continue to rent to have flexibility or less responsibility with maintenance (as of 2016, this is why I rent).  Rent prices can go up or down, and are not something you can control.  Nor is the availability or consistency of jobs that pay what you expect.  The Great Recession taught us that.  Let’s say your rent for a decent place is $1,000/mo (high in some places, but definitely lower than many).  You would need $6,000 to $12,000 to $24,000 saved just in case you were unemployed or underemployed for months to years.  Could you raise your hand in the affirmative if asked about having that much saved for a rainy day/poor economy?

Vehicle

Auto loans are expensive, but handy.  They get you a decent car, even when you don’t have 100% saved up.  First, let us define a decent car.  Something under $10,000 (and even as low as $1,000) will provide you with a safe, decent, reliable vehicle to get to your job or chauffeur the kids around in.  My wife and I purchased a 12 year old minivan for $1,500 that has worked decently reliably for us.  All repairs and maintenance the van has needed over the past 4 years has cost us less than another $1,500 easy.  Spending a little more on the front end will get you a nicer, even more reliable vehicle, like when we purchased my daily commuter.  It is a clean, low mileage, 7 year old sedan with a four cylinder engine that runs like a dream.  There is no need to spend more than $10,000 on a vehicle, let alone $30-60,000, when you haven’t saved at least a couple hundred grand for retirement and a rainy day.  And the more cash you put up front, the less the vehicle (a liability you are wearing out) will cost you.

Travel, Fun, or Hobbies

Putting a vacation on an already maxed out credit card is no fun, and makes zero sense.  Every time you charge something, you are mentally doing the math to make sure you have the room.  Instead, save the money, budget a trip, and then enjoy it!  You know what you can afford, and the trip won’t be as expensive due to interest saved.

 

The MOST Important Reason

FREEDOM and CHOICES!  How many enjoy a Sunday evening when you fantasize about not going in to work on Monday, only to realize you wouldn’t make next month’s mortgage or rent payment, the car payment, or the credit card payment if you lost this job?  I have been there and it is not a good feeling.  While most may not quit their jobs once they have a rainy day fund, just having that stress gone is worth its weight in gold.  And beyond that, savings and investments can and do create opportunities for you and your family to enjoy life, help others, and be more secure.  “The rich rules over the poor, And the borrower is servant to the lender.” (Proverbs 22:7)